There is nothing novel in the theory. As the Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone adds features and 3G capacity, it will take market share and earnings away from RIM (NYSE: RIMM), the maker of the Blackberry.
But, what is in the newspaper is not always true.
According to the Times "At the end of last year, BlackBerry had a 40 percent share of the United States smartphone market, down from 45 percent at the end of 2006, thanks largely to the 17.4 percent share the iPhone grabbed in its first six months."
So Wall St. wonders whether the iPhone can take enterprise user share from the Blackberry or whether the new consumer versions of RIMM devices will beat back Jobs & Co.
It may be that neither happens. The Blackberry does well at corporations because IT professionals install Blackberry e-mail servers in the tech rooms, allowing for some protection from hackers who would like to see what people read on their handsets. The iPhone, at this point, is mostly a multi-media device which is good for phone calls and visiting websites. Its attractiveness should improve when its 3G version comes out later this year.
But, many business people keep their cellphones separate from their e-mail devices. They like "multi-tasking", whatever that means. Two devices are better than one.
Apple is up against a market were many business people don’t want just one smartphone. Otherwise how can people "keep up with the Jones?"
Douglas A. McIntyre