WellCare Analyst Hopes….. Either Genius Or Just Crazy (WCG)

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Shares of WellCare Health Plans (NYSE:WCG) are up marginally in pre-market trading Monday.

Jefferies & Co. issued a report that, despite the FBI raids, the company probably won’t lose its Medicare contracts even though there will likely be a hit to that business  Since the company is only addressing these as "we are working with the agencies," instead of "We are under investigation because of X, Y, & Z, and we are doing X, Y, & Z."  We still don’t know the full scope of the raids, and there are many opinions out there as to what the full scope was.

It is also unclear if regulators in other states will join the pounce on WellCare.  It would seem a good bet that other state or other local agencies will also join in the investigations when the full scope comes out.  Shares lost over $80.00 in value last week and closed down at $31.36 Friday.  This morning shares are up by less than 1%.  Until more data is known, this is like catching a falling knife with a blindfold on.

Jon C. Ogg
October 29, 2007