NutriSystem, Fitting Into Its Own 'Size-Two' (NTRI)

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The diet company NutriSystem Inc. (NASDAQ:NTRI) posted $0.96 EPS on revenues of $214 million last night.  Both were up substantially above last year and even above consensus First Call estimates of $0.85 and $194 million.  But sometimes squeezing into a size-2 won’t cut it.

It now expects to make $0.77 to $0.82 for the third quarter on revenues of $200 to $208 million. Unfortunately consensus estimates are $0.89 and $209 million.  For the year, it sees $3.46 to $3.52 EPS on revenue of $810 to $820 million. compared to $3.43 EPS on revenue of $799 million.  While the
year numbers look ok, they aren’t a blowout and they are taking into consideration its exceeding of estimates.  So if we take the company at face value, they are not expecting any upside.

Neither are not good enough for a volatile hi-beta stock.  Shares closed down 6% ahead of numbers with a very weak market, but shares traded down more than 14% to under $55.00 in after-market trading.  The 52-week range is $40.82 to $76.20, so this one could be in no-man’s land for a while.

Jon C. Ogg
July 25, 2007


Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities
in the companies he covers.